Sunday, May 3, 2009

End of the 2008/09 Season: Watford 3 - 1 Derby County

The 2008/09 campaign came to an end with a meaningless, but still satisfying, win over Derby County. The 6:15am Mountain Time kick-off was a test of loyalty, but I'm pleased to say I was up and almost awake for the game. How many of these Watford players will be back next season, I wonder?

Watford finished in 13th place - an enormous achievement given where we were a few months ago. We even finished above Doncaster, Palace, and Coventry - teams that didn't even appear on Geoff's fixture list for those in danger of relegation.

How much credit is due to Brendan Rodgers? Under Boothroyd and Mackay, we were accumulating points at the rate of 1.0 per game. If that had continued for the entire season, we would have finished with 46 points - tied with Norwich for the final relegation spot, and hoping that our goal difference would have kept us up. Under Rodgers, we accumulated points at the rate of 1.44 per game. Over a 46-game season, that would have given us 66 points, which would have left us in 9th place.

Of course our recent form has been better than that. Since January, we have accumulated points at the rate of 1.55 per game. Had we been able to sustain that over the entire season, we would have finished on 71 points and in 8th place - just outside the playoff places. For me though, the turning point of the season was the FA Cup game against Chelsea - not only a great performance, but the only game this season I was able to watch live on TV. Since that game, we have accumulated points at the rate of 1.75 per game. Extrapolating that to the entire season would have given us 80 points - enough to finish 3rd, and only 3 points off an automatic promotion place.

These are the margins that define success and failure in the Second Division. Roll on next season!!!

2 comments:

  1. Great analysis as always, next season we will most likely be dealing with quiet a different cast of characters. Even this season we have quite the change of personal from the opening game to today’s game.

    Aug 9th – Crystal Palace Away
    Poom; Doyley, Bromby, DeMerit (c), Sadler; McAnuff (Robinson 86), Williamson, Eustace, Harley; Smith, Priskin (Francis 90+1)

    May 3rd – Derby Home
    Loach; Hoyte (Hodson 66), Mariappa, DeMerit (c), Doyley; McAnuff, Cork (Hoskins 90), Rose (Cauna 78), Smith; Priskin, Rasiak.

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  2. There's more great analysis on the Watford Mailing List (WML) today. Jon Sinclair posted the form table below, based on results since Brendan took over at the Vic.

    Pos Team W D L F A Pts
    ----------------------------------------
    1 Sheff Utd 13 10 5 39 26 49
    2 Preston 13 8 7 41 30 47
    ----------------------------------------
    3 Wolves 13 8 7 39 28 47
    4 Burnley 13 7 8 49 39 46
    5 Cardiff 12 10 6 43 36 46
    6 Birmingham 12 10 6 29 22 46
    ----------------------------------------
    7 Doncaster 14 3 11 34 30 45
    8 Reading 11 11 6 33 22 44
    9 Swansea 9 14 5 37 27 41
    10 Nottm Forest 11 8 9 34 36 41
    11 Watford 11 7 10 40 40 40
    12 Sheff Wed 10 9 9 34 29 39
    13 Ipswich 10 9 9 36 36 39
    14 QPR 8 12 8 26 25 36
    15 Bristol City 9 9 10 32 32 36
    16 Blackpool 8 11 9 29 33 35
    17 Crystal Palace 9 7 12 28 34 34
    18 Coventry 7 10 11 29 38 31
    19 Barnsley 7 10 11 27 36 31
    20 Derby 8 6 14 33 45 30
    21 Norwich 7 5 16 35 43 26
    ----------------------------------------
    22 Southampton 5 11 12 28 41 26
    23 Charlton 4 11 13 31 43 23
    24 Plymouth 5 8 15 21 36 23

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